Is Delhi Prepared for the 'Great Himalayan Earthquake'? Decoding Seismologists' Warning for the National Capital Region

Is Delhi Prepared for the 'Great Himalayan Earthquake'? Decoding Seismologists' Warning for the National Capital Region

Seismologists have warned that the next major earthquake in the Himalayan region could be extremely devastating, with the potential to affect over 300 million people due to its impact on the landmass.

On February 17, 2025, a 4.0 magnitude earthquake jolted the Delhi-NCR region in the early morning hours, followed by a series of smaller tremors that were felt across Bihar, Odisha, and Sikkim. Although there were no reports of casualties or damage, these tremors have once again drawn attention to the threat of a “Great Himalayan Earthquake.” Experts have long cautioned about the possibility of a massive tectonic shock in this ecologically sensitive area. Since the 2015 Nepal earthquake, scientists have predicted that a quake of magnitude 8 or higher could strike the Himalayan belt, impacting the Gangetic plain. Renowned geophysicist Roger Bilham has repeatedly stated that it’s not a matter of "if," but "when" such an event will occur.

In an interview with Times of India, Bilham noted that the Himalayas experience major earthquakes approximately every few hundred years. Over the past 2,000 years, the region has witnessed several earthquakes at regular intervals, most of which had a magnitude of around 8.7. However, in the past 70 years, the Himalayas have not experienced an earthquake stronger than magnitude 8 on the Richter scale. For context, the 2015 earthquake in Nepal had a magnitude of 7.8, resulting in 9,000 deaths and extensive destruction in Kathmandu.

When Will the 'Big One' Arrive?

The earthquakes in the Himalayan region occur due to the collision of the Indian plate with the Eurasian plate. This collision causes geological strain along fault lines. Seismologists believe only a massive earthquake will be able to release this accumulated strain. In his research, Bilham highlighted the concerning absence of a significant earthquake that could alleviate the strain along the Himalayan Arc. A 2018 study by Indian scientists suggested that the next major earthquake could strike between Dehradun and western Nepal. Researchers at the Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research in Bengaluru analyzed recent earthquakes in Gujarat and Nepal, indicating a significant tectonic build-up in the region.

Is Delhi Ready for a Major Earthquake?

According to a 2019 report by the National Disaster Management Authority, Delhi is located in the IV seismic zone on India’s seismic map, indicating a high risk of earthquakes. This seismic vulnerability is largely due to the presence of the Delhi-Hardwar Ridge, a geological feature that extends along the Ganga basin and coincides with the Aravali Mountain belt. Other major cities along this belt, such as Shimla, are also at high risk.

Why a Future Himalayan Earthquake Could Be Especially Destructive

Experts believe the next large-scale earthquake in the Himalayan region will be particularly dangerous because it will strike directly on the landmass, threatening the lives of over 300 million people. Urban infrastructure, especially in major cities like Delhi, is particularly vulnerable to the violent shaking that would accompany a mega-quake in this region.

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