A Polymarket Whale Made Significant Late Bets on Josh Allen Winning NFL MVP

A Polymarket Whale Made Significant Late Bets on Josh Allen Winning NFL MVP

In just one hour on Thursday afternoon, the odds on Polymarket for Josh Allen winning MVP surged dramatically from 53% to 94%.

Josh Allen’s victory over Lamar Jackson for MVP on Thursday night took many NFL fans by surprise—but not, apparently, for one well-informed bettor on the futures contract platform Polymarket.

Over the past week, and especially on Thursday, one individual placed significant bets to push Allen’s odds higher, despite the prevailing belief that Jackson was the likely MVP. In a mere hour on Thursday afternoon, Allen’s chances jumped from 53% to 94%.

While Allen entered the regular season as the MVP favorite, Polymarket's odds shifted when Jackson earned first-team All-Pro honors. Both MVP and All-Pro awards are voted on by the same 50 AP voters, and for the past 11 years, the first-team All-Pro quarterback has won MVP. The last time a quarterback overcame a first-team All-Pro QB to win MVP was John Elway in 1987, long before Allen or Jackson were born. Allen now becomes just the third player in NFL history to win MVP despite not making first-team All-Pro.

Jackson received 30 first-team All-Pro votes, while Allen had 18, with the remaining two votes going to Joe Burrow. According to the voting totals released Thursday night, 27 voters chose Allen as their MVP, while 23 ranked Jackson first. Jackson also earned MVP votes from players and the Pro Football Writers of America. At Thursday’s NFL Honors, Saquon Barkley was named Offensive Player of the Year, with Jackson finishing second and Allen placing sixth.

Unlike American sportsbooks such as FanDuel and DraftKings, which had closed MVP betting weeks ago, Polymarket operates as an unregulated offshore exchange where individuals place bets against each other instead of the house.

In the past month, the Polymarket whale is believed to have wagered over $600,000 on Allen to win MVP, particularly as Jackson’s All-Pro selection seemed to give him an advantage. It remains unclear whether the bettor had a lucky instinct or possibly insider knowledge regarding how the 50 AP voters cast their ballots.

Approximately $3 million in total had been wagered on Allen’s MVP win, with the whale responsible for about a fifth of that amount.

Neither the NFL, the Associated Press, nor Polymarket responded to requests for comment.

The AP voting panel this year included figures such as Tom Brady, ESPN analyst Mina Kimes, Super Bowl-winning coach Tony Dungy, and former MVP Rich Gannon. Writer Mike Florio reported on Thursday night that he had an MVP vote and ranked Jackson first, while ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky had previously revealed he also voted for MVP this year.

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